You may recall that six months ago the market consensus was that central banks would start cutting interest rates and that they would do so aggressively as inflation was expected to contract considerably. Expectations were high that the US Federal Reserve would make at least six rate cuts over the course of 2024. While the […]
READ MORETime for Goldilocks to shine?
Back in 2022, the majority of economists, myself included, were predicting a Eurozone and US recession within the next 12 months. Why the confidence in the recession? History indicated that a US recession occurred 100% of the time, within one year, whenever inflation rose above 5% and unemployment fell below 5% on a quarterly basis. […]
READ MOREThe Mega 7
Averages can hide a multitude of sins, and this is particularly the case with the Mega 7 in financial markets. So far this year, investors in the US S&P 500 Index have been very happy with themselves, wondering what all the recession talk is about while they have enjoyed 15% returns so far. This is […]
READ MORENavigating the current global economic landscape
The global economic landscape has witnessed unprecedented shifts and challenges in recent years, leaving investors around the world to grapple with uncertainty and adapt to new realities. In this article, we delve into the current situation, highlighting key challenges and opportunities that shape investment strategies in this dynamic environment. The post pandemic era continues to […]
READ MOREHas inflation peaked?
As you might have seen, inflation looks to have turned the corner, even though the jobs market remains as strong as any period in history. In fact, inflation seems to be moderating globally, albeit at different speeds in different regions. They say markets often climb a wall of worry and that has certainly been the […]
READ MORE2023 Market Outlook
Navigating markets in 2023 will require patience, diligence and an active overlay as volatility is likely to reign supreme. “Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others” – John Maynard Keynes. With eight interest rate increases in 2022, taking our official cash rate from 0.1% (April 2022) to 3.10% (December 2022) it would […]
READ MOREWhack-a-mole
I am sure that we can all remember the carnival game of whack-a-mole; it had many variants but essentially a mole puppet would pop up out of a random hole and you had to quickly whack it on the head before it dropped back down. The more hits you have, the higher your score. Trying […]
READ MOREWhere are interest rates headed?
Interest rates are certainly on the rise, so much so that the recent sell off in bonds has been the biggest seen in almost 50 years.
READ MORES&P/ASX 200 to hit 15,600
Tis the season for predictions no matter how ludicrous they may seem. After seeing numerous articles on the predictions of Nostradamus and Baba Vanga, I thought I would throw my hat into the ring as well. Here is a link on Baba Vanga as I know you want to find out more. So, just how […]
READ MOREIs China’s Evergrande crisis the start of the next Global Financial Crisis?
In a world of headlines and 30 second attention spans, the crisis engulfing China’s second largest property developer, Evergrande, certainly brings back painful memories of the Lehman Brothers collapse and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). But is this an accurate depiction of what is to come or merely another round of scaremongering? There is definitely one key similarity – both started in […]
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